📌 Is AAPL a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Apple Inc. (AAPL) is currently rated HOLD (Signal Strength: 3/7). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 36.3, Revenue Growth: +16.6%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 76). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $304.79 before adding exposure.
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📊 Open AAPL Analysis ↗
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a HOLD rating to AAPL based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 59% of the time over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +10.2% per trade.
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for AAPL over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 37%)
If AAPL reclaims the $304.79 resistance level (Bollinger Upper), algorithmic targets shift to $308.07. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 43%)
Failure to hold the $258.30 support zone (Bollinger Lower) triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $252.06 liquidity zone (-16.0% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 30 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $258.30 and $304.79 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $300.23 | Market Cap | $4409.6B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 59.1% | Forward P/E | 31.3x |
| Past Total Return | +88.6% | Analyst Target | $308.07 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 76 / 30 | Upside to Target | +2.6% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | +16.6% |
| Profit Factor | 4.08 | Institutional Own. | 65.7% |
| Position Entry | 2026-05-01 @ $280.14 | Analyst Ratings | 30 Buy / 16 Hold / 2 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +7.2% |
MAINTAIN POSITION - Current position showing 7.2% unrealized gain. Use intelligent stop loss strategy below.
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Hybrid adapts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Fixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $280.14 on 2026-05-01
Confluence: 6.0
Stop Loss: $287.74
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
59%
Past Total Return
+88.6%
Max Drawdown
-11.8%
Avg Trade
+10.2%
Trades
22
Adaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $280.14 on 2026-05-01
Confluence: 6.0
Stop Loss: $290.87
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
62%
Past Total Return
+62.5%
Max Drawdown
-11.9%
Avg Trade
+6.3%
Trades
29
Current Price
$300.23
Buy Stop Loss
$287.74
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$289.30
Distance: 4%
Hybrid 1.75x
ATR 14 Day
$6.24
Volatility
ADX Strength
29.6
Strong trend
Position up +7% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| EMA 20 | $283.75 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | $273.01 | Bullish |
| RSI (14) | 75.7 | Overbought - potential reversal |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 29.6 | Strong trend (25-50) |
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | May 01, 2026 |
| Needham | REITERATED | Hold → Hold | May 01, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | UPGRADE | Neutral → Outperform | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | REITERATED | Overweight → Overweight | Mar 23, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Mar 05, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Average Target: | $308.07 | High Target: | $400.00 |
| Current Price: | $300.23 | Low Target: | $215.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +2.6% | Number of Analysts: | 43 |
Based on backtest performance (Win Rate: 59.1%, Avg Return: +10.2%) and analyst consensus (Target: $308.07, +2.6% upside), a MARKET WEIGHT exposure may be considered. Risk/Reward ratio of 0.17:1 suggests unfavorable risk-adjusted returns. Current open position shows +7.2% unrealized gain.
Apple Inc. operates in the Technology sector (Consumer Electronics). Current valuation of 31.3x forward P/E reflects premium multiples relative to growth prospects. Operating margin of 32.3% shows strong profitability.
Fundamental Outlook: Strong Growth - Positive operating leverage with revenue and earnings acceleration
Overall Score: 1.4/10 - Slightly Bullish
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| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $4409.6B |
| P/E Ratio (Forward) | 31.3 |
| EPS (Forward) | $9.59 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.36% |
| 52-Week Range | $193.46 - $303.20 |
| Beta | 1.06 |
| Avg Volume | 43.8M |
Comprehensive Technical Data for Quantitative Analysis
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Price | $300.23 | Volume | 54.7M |
| EMA 20 | $283.75 | EMA 50 | $273.01 |
| EMA 200 | $257.63 | Current Price | $300.23 |
| RSI (14) | 75.66 | MACD | 9.457 |
| MACD Signal | 7.711 | MACD Histogram | 1.746 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 29.58 | Volatility (ATR 14) | $6.24 |
| Bollinger Upper | $304.79 | Bollinger Lower | $258.30 |
| Stochastic %K | 92.84 | Stochastic %D | 94.38 |
| VWAP | $299.98 | Bollinger Middle | $281.55 |
| Confluence Score | 3/7 | Trade Signal | NONE |
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $4409.6B | Revenue | $451.4B |
| Forward P/E | 31.3 | Revenue Growth | +16.6% |
| Trailing P/E | 36.3 | Gross Margin | 47.9% |
| Price/Sales | 9.77 | Operating Margin | 32.3% |
| Price/Book | 41.35 | Profit Margin | 27.2% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.61 | ROE | 141.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $4425.8B | Free Cash Flow | $101.1B |
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | $280.14 | +7.17% | $265.24 |
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-07 | 2024-07-15 | $169.00 | $234.40 | +38.70% | Win |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-09-20 | $209.27 | $228.20 | +9.05% | Win |
| 2024-10-15 | 2024-11-06 | $233.85 | $222.72 | -4.76% | Loss |
| 2024-12-20 | 2025-01-07 | $254.49 | $242.21 | -4.83% | Loss |
| 2025-01-16 | 2025-01-22 | $228.26 | $223.83 | -1.94% | Loss |
| 2025-02-19 | 2025-03-11 | $244.87 | $220.84 | -9.81% | Loss |
| 2025-05-23 | 2025-09-05 | $195.27 | $239.69 | +22.75% | Win |
| 2025-09-19 | 2026-01-13 | $245.50 | $261.05 | +6.33% | Win |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-20 | $246.70 | $264.58 | +7.25% | Win |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-23 | $266.18 | $251.49 | -5.52% | Loss |
Summary: 22 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultra Stock Analysis Pro is not a registered investment advisor; information is impersonal and not tailored to individual circumstances. AI-generated content may contain errors — verify before acting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through 2026-05-15. Fundamental data auto-fetched from Yahoo Finance. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Report Generated: May 16, 2026 at 11:58 AM
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