Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs COST a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Great business, weak setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is COST a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is currently rated WAIT FOR SIGNAL (Signal Strength: 4/7 (last fired 2026-07-23, 22d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 48.3, Revenue Growth: +21.5%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 56). Traders should watch for a breakout above $967.26 before entering new positions.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated WAIT FOR SIGNAL (Signal Strength 4/7), model timing RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · BOUNCE — NO CONFIRMATION.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $17.56 below entry ($35.12–$52.68).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +21.5% YoY with a 3.7% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 42.4x.
- Wall Street: average target $1,077.31 (+12.1%) from 22 Buy, 13 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $959.47 (-0.2%), nearest resistance $967.26 (+0.6%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open COST Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on COST stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does COST carry this rating?
COST carries a WAIT rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 61/100), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 11), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $967.26 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $959.47 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on COST?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
WAIT FOR ENTRY — monitor for a Signal Strength of 5+, then size the position against a stop set 2-3x the 14-day ATR below entry.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$961.10
Buy Stop Loss
$925.98
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$925.98
Distance: 4%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$17.56
Volatility
ADX Strength
15.1
Weak/No Trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could COST stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for COST over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 53%)
If COST reclaims the $967.26 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $1077.31. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 32%)
Failure to hold the $959.47 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $903.62 liquidity zone (-6.0% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 15 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $959.47 and $967.26 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying COST now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much COST should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs COST stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does COST's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · BOUNCE — NO CONFIRMATION and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Strong on both. COST pairs a solid business with a constructive setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving COST's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +46% YoY | +18 | |
| Revenue Growth +22% YoY | +10 | |
| Profitability Margin 3%, ROE 29% | +7 | |
| Momentum RSI 43, MACD bullish | +5 | |
| Volatility ATR 1.8% of price | +0 | |
| Sentiment Neutral | -1 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 11 | -5 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 42.4, PEG 4.6 | -11 | |
| Relative Strength -10.6% vs benchmarks (3M) | -11 |
Net Factor Score: +12 — Balanced / mixed. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs COST outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -1.6% | -11.6% | -18.0% |
| Consumer Defensive (XLP) | +1.5% | -9.6% | -1.2% |
COST 3-month return: -7.6% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability COST stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Defensive (14 peers)Is COST cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 14 Consumer Defensive peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ COST vs. Its Closest PeersHow does COST compare to WMT and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Discount Stores from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files COST beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | COST (this report) | WMT | TGT | DG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $426.2B | $917.3B | $70.2B | $27.2B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +21.5% | +7.3% | +6.7% | +3.4% |
| Forward P/E | 42.4x | 35.1x | 17.1x | 15.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.61 | 4.42 | 2.82 | 1.72 |
| Operating Margin | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 15.1 | 14.7 | 17.9 | 32.6 |
WMT (Walmart Inc. — closest business match), TGT (Target Corporation), DG (Dollar General Corporation). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could COST go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $1077.31 | High Target: | $1315.00 |
| Current Price: | $961.10 | Low Target: | $740.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +12.1% | Number of Analysts: | 35 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded COST recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Jun 03, 2026 |
| BTIG | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | May 29, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on COST?
Overall Score: -0.8/10 - Neutral
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 1)
- Is Costco Stock Worth Buying Now or Still Too Pricey to Touch?
Zacks • Aug 14Costco's recent pullback eases its valuation, but a premium P/E, moderating sales growth and margin risks may keep new investors cautious....
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/costco-sto...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Jim Cramer Discussed Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) & Forecast Bumps
Insider Monkey • Aug 14Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) is one of Jim Cramer’s favorite stocks. The shares are down by 1% over the past year and are up by 12% year...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jim-cramer... - Costco makes a pricing promise members need to know
TheStreet • Aug 14If Wendy's offers a $5 value meal that includes a sandwich, chicken nuggets, fries, and a soda, Burger King and McDonald's run the risk of losing valu...
Source: https://www.thestreet.com/retail/costcos-biggest-price-rival...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $925.98 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
45%
Past Total Return
+19.5%
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Avg Trade
+3.9%
Trades
20
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $934.76 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
50%
Past Total Return
+21.0%
Max Drawdown
-16.3%
Avg Trade
+2.4%
Trades
26
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for COST stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $961.10 | Market Cap | $426.2B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 45.0% (20 trades) | Forward P/E | 42.4x |
| Past Total Return | +19.5% | Analyst Target | $1077.31 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 56 / 15 | Upside to Target | +12.1% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | +21.5% |
| Profit Factor | 2.85 | Institutional Own. | 74.5% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 22 Buy / 13 Hold / 2 Sell |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the COST rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to COST based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (56) is currently in neutral range in 45% of 20 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 15 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Neutral).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($17.56) indicates moderate volatility (1.8% of price), suggesting potential moves of 3.7%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 45% of the time across 20 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +3.9% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why COST can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ COST — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $961.10 | Volume | 1.2M |
| Avg Volume | 2.4M | Beta | 0.86 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $949.70 | EMA 50 | $954.89 |
| EMA 200 | $960.55 | VWAP | $961.40 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 15.08 | Distance from EMA 20 | +1.2% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 55.70 | MACD | 2.25 |
| MACD Signal | 0.37 | MACD Histogram | 1.88 |
| Stochastic %K | 47.79 | Stochastic %D | 45.78 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $974.45 | Bollinger Middle | $947.81 |
| Bollinger Lower | $921.18 | Band Position | 74.9% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $17.56 | ATR as % of price | 1.8% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 4/7 (last fired 2026-07-23, 22d ago) | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $426.2B | Revenue | $293.6B |
| Forward P/E | 42.4 | Revenue Growth | +21.5% |
| Trailing P/E | 48.3 | Gross Margin | 12.9% |
| Price/Sales | 1.45 | Operating Margin | 3.7% |
| Price/Book | 25.78 | Profit Margin | 3.0% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.61 | ROE | 29.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $424.5B | Free Cash Flow | $7.0B |
| EPS (Forward) | $22.66 | Dividend Yield | 0.61% |
| 52-Week Range | $844.06 - $1096.50 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-20 | 2023-12-27 | $437.47 | $656.59 | +50.09% | Win |
| 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-13 | $774.70 | $724.02 | -6.54% | Loss |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-09 | $874.79 | $875.96 | +0.13% | Win |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-09-13 | $793.11 | $906.04 | +14.24% | Win |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025-01-03 | $934.78 | $907.82 | -2.88% | Loss |
| 2025-01-21 | 2025-03-14 | $938.67 | $896.27 | -4.52% | Loss |
| 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-18 | $1032.72 | $967.90 | -6.28% | Loss |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-02-17 | $952.55 | $1008.98 | +5.92% | Win |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-16 | $1027.14 | $984.21 | -4.18% | Loss |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-27 | $1092.58 | $1002.10 | -8.28% | Loss |
Summary: 20 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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