The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs HD a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Tradable setup, mediocre business. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is HD a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is currently rated HOLD (Signal Strength: 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days)). The long-term fundamentals are stable (P/E: 24.0, Revenue Growth: +4.8%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 48). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $341.15 before adding exposure.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated HOLD (Signal Strength 0/7), model timing GREEN · BULLISH, WATCHING FOR ENTRY · EXTENDED · BREAKOUT FADED.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x ATR stop sits at $321.86, 5.0% below the current $338.86.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +4.8% YoY with a 11.9% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 21.0x.
- Wall Street: average target $374.06 (+10.4%) from 22 Buy, 14 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $335.43 (-1.0%), nearest resistance $341.15 (+0.7%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open HD Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on HD stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does HD carry this rating?
HD carries a WAIT rating because fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 44/100), the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 16), relative strength has slipped over the past month and no fresh entry trigger has fired (Signal Strength 0/7). A breakout above $341.15 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $335.43 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on HD?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
MAINTAIN POSITION — currently +12.9% unrealized. Manage it with the stop levels below.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$338.86
Buy Stop Loss
$321.86
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$326.11
Distance: 4%
Hybrid 1.50x
ATR 14 Day
$8.50
Volatility
ADX Strength
16.3
Weak/No Trend
Position up +13% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could HD stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for HD over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 20%)
If HD reclaims the $341.15 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $374.06. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Cyclical.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 50%)
Failure to hold the $335.43 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $314.24 liquidity zone (-7.3% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 16 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $335.43 and $341.15 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying HD now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much HD should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs HD stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: The Home Depot, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does HD's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GREEN · BULLISH, WATCHING FOR ENTRY · EXTENDED · BREAKOUT FADED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
HD: Investment Quality 44/100 vs. Entry Quality 57/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving HD's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability Margin 8%, ROE 128% | +16 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 21.0, PEG 1.9 | +8 | |
| Relative Strength +7.3% vs benchmarks (3M) | +7 | |
| Revenue Growth +5% YoY | +3 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +2 | |
| Trend EMA mixed, ADX 16 | +0 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.5% of price | -1 | |
| Earnings Growth -4% YoY | -5 | |
| Momentum RSI 48, MACD bearish | -5 |
Net Factor Score: +25 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs HD outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -6.0% | +8.1% | -26.5% |
| Consumer Cyclical (XLY) | -3.4% | +12.4% | -14.1% |
| Retail (XRT) | -0.9% | +1.3% | -15.3% |
HD 3-month return: +12.2% · Leadership: BROAD LEADER — outperforming the market, its sector, and peers
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability HD stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Cyclical (13 peers)Is HD cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 13 Consumer Cyclical peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ HD vs. Its Closest PeersHow does HD compare to LOW and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Home Improvement Retail from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files HD beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | HD (this report) | LOW | MCD | TJX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $337.9B | $122.6B | $193.1B | $168.0B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +4.8% | +10.3% | +3.7% | +9.2% |
| Forward P/E | 21.0x | 16.3x | 19.5x | 26.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.94 | 1.43 | 2.57 | 3.39 |
| Operating Margin | 11.9% | 11.1% | 46.5% | 11.8% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.3 | 36.9 | 14.9 | 25.6 |
LOW (Lowe's Companies, Inc. — closest business match), MCD (McDonald's Corporation), TJX (The TJX Companies, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could HD go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $374.06 | High Target: | $430.00 |
| Current Price: | $338.86 | Low Target: | $310.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +10.4% | Number of Analysts: | 32 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded HD recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | DOWNGRADE | Outperform → Peer Perform | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | May 20, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on HD?
Overall Score: 1.9/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 3)
- Bill Gates’ Portfolio Just Added Home Depot (HD) Despite Risks. Time to Buy?
Insider Monkey • Aug 15Latest filings show the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust opened a new position in Home Depot (NYSE:HD), worth about $353 million, during the seco...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bill-gates... - Home Depot and Lowe's Have Both Raised Their Dividends for 17 Straight Years. Which Stock Is the Smarter Buy Heading Into Earnings?
Motley Fool • Aug 15The rapid growth days of each company are probably over, but each stock remains an excellent choice for income investors....
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/15/home-depot-lowes-r... - Home Depot to Post Q2 Earnings: Is it Wise to Buy Before the Release?
Zacks • Aug 14HD Q2 results are expected to reflect sales and EPS growth, fueled by Pro momentum and digital gains, while housing and margin pressures remain concer...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/home-depot...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 1)
- Home Depot, Lowe's Quarterly Results Unlikely to Show Signs of Recovery Amid Macro Pressures, Oppenheimer Says
MT Newswires • Aug 14Home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) second-quarter results are unlikely to s...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/home-depot-lo...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $300.19 on 2026-05-19
Confluence: 6/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $321.86
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
59%
Past Total Return
+35.8%
Max Drawdown
-11.1%
Avg Trade
+7.1%
Trades
17
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $300.19 on 2026-05-19
Confluence: 6/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $326.11
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
58%
Past Total Return
+36.0%
Max Drawdown
-11.1%
Avg Trade
+6.3%
Trades
19
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for HD stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $338.86 | Market Cap | $337.9B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 58.8% (17 trades) | Forward P/E | 21.0x |
| Past Total Return | +35.8% | Analyst Target | $374.06 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 48 / 16 | Upside to Target | +10.4% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | +4.8% |
| Profit Factor | 2.73 | Institutional Own. | 77.7% |
| Position Entry | 2026-05-19 @ $300.19 | Analyst Ratings | 22 Buy / 14 Hold / 0 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +12.9% |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the HD rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to HD based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (48) is currently in neutral range in 59% of 17 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 16 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($8.50) indicates moderate volatility (2.5% of price), suggesting potential moves of 5.0%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 59% of the time across 17 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +7.1% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 0/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why HD can show a mixed trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 0/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ HD — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $338.86 | Volume | 3.1M |
| Avg Volume | 4.6M | Beta | 0.96 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $343.00 | EMA 50 | $338.20 |
| EMA 200 | $343.50 | VWAP | $338.56 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.27 | Distance from EMA 20 | -1.2% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 47.87 | MACD | 2.50 |
| MACD Signal | 2.97 | MACD Histogram | -0.47 |
| Stochastic %K | 45.06 | Stochastic %D | 61.55 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $358.63 | Bollinger Middle | $340.69 |
| Bollinger Lower | $322.74 | Band Position | 44.9% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $8.50 | ATR as % of price | 2.5% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days) | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $337.9B | Revenue | $166.6B |
| Forward P/E | 21.0 | Revenue Growth | +4.8% |
| Trailing P/E | 24.0 | Gross Margin | 33.1% |
| Price/Sales | 2.03 | Operating Margin | 11.9% |
| Price/Book | 24.35 | Profit Margin | 8.4% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.94 | ROE | 128.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $400.0B | Free Cash Flow | $10.1B |
| EPS (Forward) | $16.11 | Dividend Yield | 2.75% |
| 52-Week Range | $289.10 - $426.75 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $300.19 | +12.88% | $283.81 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-24 | 2022-05-23 | $279.14 | $256.43 | -8.14% | Loss |
| 2022-07-25 | 2022-09-13 | $276.20 | $252.38 | -8.63% | Loss |
| 2023-01-06 | 2023-02-24 | $290.08 | $271.02 | -6.57% | Loss |
| 2023-05-16 | 2023-07-12 | $259.79 | $294.28 | +13.27% | Win |
| 2023-11-14 | 2024-01-19 | $283.20 | $340.30 | +20.16% | Win |
| 2024-06-21 | 2024-06-28 | $338.42 | $327.43 | -3.25% | Loss |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-12-30 | $371.65 | $374.62 | +0.80% | Win |
| 2025-01-23 | 2025-02-21 | $398.63 | $370.65 | -7.02% | Loss |
| 2025-03-13 | 2025-10-13 | $336.17 | $371.64 | +10.55% | Win |
| 2025-11-19 | 2026-03-09 | $327.69 | $348.60 | +6.38% | Win |
Summary: 17 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
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