International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs IBM a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Weak on business and setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is IBM a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is currently rated BUY (Signal Strength: 5/7 (last fired 2026-07-16, 29d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are stable (P/E: 20.8, Revenue Growth: +1.1%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 49). Traders should watch for a breakout above $239.53 before entering new positions.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated BUY (Signal Strength 5/7), model timing RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · BOUNCE — NO CONFIRMATION.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $8.95 below entry ($17.90–$26.84).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +1.1% YoY with a 16.5% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 17.8x.
- Wall Street: average target $244.16 (+4.2%) from 12 Buy, 7 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $231.68 (-1.1%), nearest resistance $239.53 (+2.2%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open IBM Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on IBM stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does IBM carry this rating?
IBM carries a BUY rating because the trend is strong (ADX 28), relative strength is positive versus the S&P 500 and a confirmed bullish setup is in place (Signal Strength 5/7), but fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 50/100). A close below $231.68 would weaken the setup; sustained strength keeps the BUY intact.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on IBM?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
WAIT FOR ENTRY — monitor for a Signal Strength of 5+, then size the position against a stop set 2-3x the 14-day ATR below entry.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$234.32
Buy Stop Loss
$216.42
Distance: 8%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$216.42
Distance: 8%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$8.95
Volatility
ADX Strength
16.2
Weak/No Trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could IBM stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for IBM over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 65%)
If IBM reclaims the $239.53 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $247.67. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 23%)
Failure to hold the $231.68 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $192.61 liquidity zone (-17.8% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 16 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $231.68 and $239.53 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying IBM now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much IBM should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs IBM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: International Business Machines Corporation · Technology · Information Technology Services. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does IBM's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · BOUNCE — NO CONFIRMATION and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
IBM: Investment Quality 50/100 vs. Entry Quality 85/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving IBM's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability Margin 16%, ROE 34% | +16 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 28 | +12 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 17.8, PEG 2.4 | +8 | |
| Momentum RSI 33, MACD bullish | +5 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +4 | |
| Relative Strength +3.1% vs benchmarks (3M) | +3 | |
| Revenue Growth +1% YoY | +1 | |
| Earnings Growth -2% YoY | -2 | |
| Volatility ATR 3.8% of price | -4 |
Net Factor Score: +43 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs IBM outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +4.3% | +4.0% | -23.0% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.7% | +2.1% | -45.2% |
IBM 3-month return: +8.1% · Leadership: BROAD LEADER — outperforming the market, its sector, and peers
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability IBM stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Information Technology Services (19 peers)Is IBM cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 19 Information Technology Services peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ IBM vs. Its Closest PeersHow does IBM compare to FI and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Information Technology Services from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files IBM beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | IBM (this report) | FI | FISV | CTSH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $220.8B | — | $28.9B | $27.8B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +1.1% | — | — | +4.5% |
| Forward P/E | 17.8x | — | 6.6x | 9.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.40 | — | 1.30 | 0.93 |
| Operating Margin | 16.5% | — | — | 17.5% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.2 | — | 15.6 | — |
FI (FI), FISV (Fiserv, Inc.), CTSH (Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could IBM go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $244.16 | High Target: | $350.00 |
| Current Price: | $234.32 | Low Target: | $174.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +4.2% | Number of Analysts: | 23 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded IBM recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Baird | INITIATED | Neutral | Jul 22, 2026 |
| HSBC | DOWNGRADE | Hold → Reduce | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | INITIATED | Neutral | Jul 10, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | UPGRADE | Neutral → Overweight | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | INITIATED | Overweight | Jun 01, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | May 29, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on IBM?
Overall Score: 3.8/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 3)
- Arista Networks vs. International Business Machines: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
Motley Fool • Aug 15Arista trades at a steep premium to IBM, but their growth trajectories and risk profiles tell very different stories for 2026 investors....
Source: https://www.fool.com/coverage/better-buy/2026/08/14/arista-n... - AST SpaceMobile vs. IBM: Which Tech Stock is the Better Buy Now?
Zacks • Aug 14IBM's steadier earnings outlook and cheaper valuation outweigh ASTS' stronger stock gains, making it the relatively better investment option now....
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacem... - Kyndryl’s Q2 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions
StockStory • Aug 14Kyndryl’s second quarter results saw a negative market reaction, as sales declined and missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations. Management attribute...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kyndryl-q2...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $216.42 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
33%
Past Total Return
+14.7%
Max Drawdown
-33.1%
Avg Trade
+1.2%
Trades
24
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $220.90 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
36%
Past Total Return
+24.2%
Max Drawdown
-33.1%
Avg Trade
+1.8%
Trades
25
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for IBM stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $234.32 | Market Cap | $220.8B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 33.3% (24 trades) | Forward P/E | 17.8x |
| Past Total Return | +14.7% | Analyst Target | $244.16 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 49 / 16 | Upside to Target | +4.2% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +1.1% |
| Profit Factor | 2.63 | Institutional Own. | 66.8% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 12 Buy / 7 Hold / 2 Sell |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the IBM rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a BUY rating to IBM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (49) is currently in neutral range in 33% of 24 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 16 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($8.95) indicates high volatility (3.8% of price), suggesting potential moves of 7.6%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 33% of the time across 24 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +1.2% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 5/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✓ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✓ |
This is why IBM can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 5/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ IBM — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $234.32 | Volume | 4.5M |
| Avg Volume | 11.3M | Beta | 0.70 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $233.82 | EMA 50 | $241.84 |
| EMA 200 | $253.16 | VWAP | $235.73 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.18 | Distance from EMA 20 | +0.2% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 48.62 | MACD | -2.64 |
| MACD Signal | -5.63 | MACD Histogram | 2.99 |
| Stochastic %K | 80.34 | Stochastic %D | 85.22 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $247.67 | Bollinger Middle | $224.61 |
| Bollinger Lower | $201.56 | Band Position | 71.0% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $8.95 | ATR as % of price | 3.8% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 5/7 (last fired 2026-07-16, 29d ago) | Trade Signal | SELL — fired 2026-07-17 (28d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $220.8B | Revenue | $69.1B |
| Forward P/E | 17.8 | Revenue Growth | +1.1% |
| Trailing P/E | 20.8 | Gross Margin | 58.1% |
| Price/Sales | 3.20 | Operating Margin | 16.5% |
| Price/Book | 6.41 | Profit Margin | 15.5% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.40 | ROE | 34.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $278.0B | Free Cash Flow | $12.0B |
| EPS (Forward) | $13.17 | Dividend Yield | 2.88% |
| 52-Week Range | $199.19 - $332.46 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-20 | 2023-01-30 | $111.37 | $118.85 | +6.71% | Win |
| 2023-06-01 | 2023-10-17 | $117.01 | $127.93 | +9.33% | Win |
| 2023-10-26 | 2024-04-25 | $131.06 | $157.16 | +19.91% | Win |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-10-15 | $165.40 | $220.82 | +33.51% | Win |
| 2024-10-30 | 2025-02-20 | $194.22 | $254.60 | +31.09% | Win |
| 2025-05-07 | 2025-08-01 | $243.67 | $242.08 | -0.65% | Loss |
| 2025-09-19 | 2026-02-05 | $259.65 | $284.10 | +9.42% | Win |
| 2026-05-21 | 2026-05-28 | $251.17 | $262.34 | +4.45% | Win |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-16 | $295.68 | $268.88 | -9.06% | Loss |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-17 | $215.52 | $211.16 | -2.03% | Loss |
Summary: 24 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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