PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs PEP a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Weak on business and setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is PEP a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is currently rated HOLD (Signal Strength: 4/7 (last fired 2026-08-12, 2d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are stable (P/E: 18.4, Revenue Growth: +6.4%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 54). Traders should watch for a breakout above $140.91 before entering new positions.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated HOLD (Signal Strength 4/7), model timing RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · AVOID.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x ATR stop sits at $135.38, 3.8% below the current $140.79.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +6.4% YoY with a 16.8% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 15.7x.
- Wall Street: average target $155.00 (+10.1%) from 8 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $140.37 (-0.3%), nearest resistance $140.91 (+0.1%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open PEP Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on PEP stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does PEP carry this rating?
PEP carries a HOLD rating because fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 50/100), the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 11), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $140.91 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $140.37 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on PEP?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
MAINTAIN POSITION — currently +8.1% unrealized. Manage it with the stop levels below.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$140.79
Buy Stop Loss
$135.38
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$136.06
Distance: 3%
Hybrid 1.75x
ATR 14 Day
$2.71
Volatility
ADX Strength
12.0
Weak/No Trend
Position up +8% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could PEP stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for PEP over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 53%)
If PEP reclaims the $140.91 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $155.00. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 31%)
Failure to hold the $140.37 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $131.30 liquidity zone (-6.7% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 12 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $140.37 and $140.91 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying PEP now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much PEP should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs PEP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: PepsiCo, Inc. · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does PEP's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · AVOID and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
PEP: Investment Quality 50/100 vs. Entry Quality 55/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving PEP's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +137% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 11%, ROE 52% | +16 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 15.7, PEG 1.5 | +8 | |
| Momentum RSI 48, MACD bullish | +5 | |
| Revenue Growth +6% YoY | +4 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +3 | |
| Volatility ATR 1.9% of price | +0 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 11 | -5 | |
| Relative Strength -7.3% vs benchmarks (3M) | -7 |
Net Factor Score: +42 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs PEP outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -2.4% | -8.3% | -28.7% |
| Consumer Defensive (XLP) | +0.6% | -6.3% | -11.9% |
PEP 3-month return: -4.3% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability PEP stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic (10 peers)Is PEP cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 10 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ PEP vs. Its Closest PeersHow does PEP compare to KO and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Beverages - Non-Alcoholic from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files PEP beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | PEP (this report) | KO | MNST | KDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $192.3B | $377.4B | $91.7B | $42.8B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +6.4% | +6.7% | +20.2% | +75.6% |
| Forward P/E | 15.7x | 24.9x | 35.8x | 12.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.50 | 4.18 | 2.69 | 1.01 |
| Operating Margin | 16.8% | 34.9% | 29.2% | 12.9% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 12.0 | 22.6 | 23.7 | 18.0 |
KO (The Coca-Cola Company — closest business match), MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation), KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could PEP go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $155.00 | High Target: | $183.00 |
| Current Price: | $140.79 | Low Target: | $124.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +10.1% | Number of Analysts: | 22 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded PEP recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | DOWNGRADE | Buy → Neutral | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Bernstein | INITIATED | Market Perform | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Bernstein | INITIATED | Market Perform | Jun 11, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on PEP?
Overall Score: 3.0/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 3)
- Is Investing in Coca-Cola Stock Near an All-Time High a Better Buy Than PepsiCo Under $140 Per Share?
Motley Fool • Aug 12Pepsi has its challenges, but its dirt cheap valuation and high-dividend yield make it a no-brainer buy for income investors....
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/12/invest-coca-cola-s... - PepsiCo (PEP) Enters Fresh Meals With Its US Alvalle Gazpacho Launch
Simply Wall St. • Aug 12PepsiCo (NasdaqGS:PEP) has launched its Alvalle gazpacho line in the U.S., moving into the fresh, refrigerated meal category. The company also announc...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/pepsico-pe... - Coca-Cola vs. PepsiCo Stock After Q2 Earnings: Which Is the Better Buy?
Zacks • Aug 11Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo's (PEP) latest quarterly results suggest there is a widening gap between the two companies' near-term operating outlooks....
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/coca-cola-...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $130.20 on 2025-07-16
Confluence: none in the 30d before entry
Stop Loss: $135.38
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
60%
Past Total Return
+9.4%
Max Drawdown
-12.8%
Avg Trade
+1.5%
Trades
15
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $136.73 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
63%
Past Total Return
+17.2%
Max Drawdown
-10.8%
Avg Trade
+1.8%
Trades
19
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for PEP stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $140.79 | Market Cap | $192.3B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 60.0% (15 trades) | Forward P/E | 15.7x |
| Past Total Return | +9.4% | Analyst Target | $155.00 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 54 / 12 | Upside to Target | +10.1% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +6.4% |
| Profit Factor | 1.39 | Institutional Own. | 81.1% |
| Position Entry | 2025-07-16 @ $130.20 | Analyst Ratings | 8 Buy / 14 Hold / 1 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +8.1% |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the PEP rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a HOLD rating to PEP based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (54) is currently in neutral range in 60% of 15 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 12 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($2.71) indicates moderate volatility (1.9% of price), suggesting potential moves of 3.8%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 60% of the time across 15 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +1.5% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why PEP can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ PEP — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $140.79 | Volume | 3.9M |
| Avg Volume | 8.8M | Beta | 0.36 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $139.28 | EMA 50 | $140.89 |
| EMA 200 | $144.92 | VWAP | $140.73 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 12.01 | Distance from EMA 20 | +1.1% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 54.11 | MACD | -0.09 |
| MACD Signal | -0.39 | MACD Histogram | 0.30 |
| Stochastic %K | 43.14 | Stochastic %D | 40.49 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $143.48 | Bollinger Middle | $138.74 |
| Bollinger Lower | $134.00 | Band Position | 71.6% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $2.71 | ATR as % of price | 1.9% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 4/7 (last fired 2026-08-12, 2d ago) | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $192.3B | Revenue | $96.9B |
| Forward P/E | 15.7 | Revenue Growth | +6.4% |
| Trailing P/E | 18.4 | Gross Margin | 54.2% |
| Price/Sales | 1.98 | Operating Margin | 16.8% |
| Price/Book | 8.70 | Profit Margin | 10.8% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.50 | ROE | 51.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $234.8B | Free Cash Flow | $7.8B |
| EPS (Forward) | $8.98 | Dividend Yield | 4.21% |
| 52-Week Range | $133.73 - $171.48 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-16 | $130.20 | +8.14% | $125.93 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-07 | 2022-02-23 | $134.40 | $144.22 | +7.31% | Win |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-28 | $147.62 | $154.59 | +4.72% | Win |
| 2022-10-21 | 2023-05-15 | $152.79 | $173.75 | +13.72% | Win |
| 2023-05-30 | 2023-06-13 | $162.43 | $163.50 | +0.66% | Win |
| 2023-06-16 | 2023-08-15 | $167.55 | $163.33 | -2.52% | Loss |
| 2024-03-21 | 2024-06-11 | $158.80 | $153.20 | -3.52% | Loss |
| 2024-07-11 | 2024-10-03 | $152.16 | $157.60 | +3.58% | Win |
| 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-31 | $164.68 | $155.31 | -5.69% | Loss |
| 2025-01-10 | 2025-03-19 | $134.53 | $140.92 | +4.75% | Win |
| 2025-04-09 | 2025-04-29 | $138.53 | $127.79 | -7.75% | Loss |
Summary: 15 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
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