The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs PG a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Great business, weak setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is PG a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) is currently rated HOLD (Signal Strength: 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days)). The long-term fundamentals are stable (P/E: 21.8, Revenue Growth: +1.5%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 45). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $147.44 before adding exposure.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated HOLD (Signal Strength 0/7), model timing RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · SELL.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x ATR stop sits at $138.53, 4.2% below the current $144.55.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +1.5% YoY with a 22.1% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 19.5x.
- Wall Street: average target $160.57 (+11.1%) from 14 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $144.35 (-0.1%), nearest resistance $147.44 (+2.0%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open PG Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on PG stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does PG carry this rating?
PG carries a WAIT rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 63/100), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 6), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and no fresh entry trigger has fired (Signal Strength 0/7). A breakout above $147.44 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $144.35 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on PG?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
MAINTAIN POSITION — currently -3.2% unrealized. Manage it with the stop levels below.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$144.55
Buy Stop Loss
$138.53
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$137.02
Distance: 5%
Hybrid 2.50x
ATR 14 Day
$3.01
Volatility
ADX Strength
5.9
Weak/No Trend
Position down -3% - Wider stops for recovery
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could PG stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for PG over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 20%)
If PG reclaims the $147.44 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $160.57. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 50%)
Failure to hold the $144.35 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $140.09 liquidity zone (-3.1% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 6 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $144.35 and $147.44 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying PG now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much PG should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs PG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: The Procter & Gamble Company · Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does PG's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · SELL and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Strong business, stretched entry. PG scores well on fundamentals but price is extended or lacks a fresh trigger — better-priced entries typically appear on a pullback toward support.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving PG's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability Margin 18%, ROE 30% | +15 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 19.5, PEG 4.1 | +5 | |
| Revenue Growth +2% YoY | +1 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +1 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.1% of price | +0 | |
| Relative Strength -1.0% vs benchmarks (3M) | -1 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 6 | -5 | |
| Momentum RSI 45, MACD bearish | -5 | |
| Earnings Growth -16% YoY | -18 |
Net Factor Score: -7 — Balanced / mixed. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs PG outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -7.3% | -2.0% | -23.5% |
| Consumer Defensive (XLP) | -4.2% | +0.0% | -6.7% |
PG 3-month return: +2.0% · Leadership: SECTOR LEADER, MARKET LAGGARD — leads its sector/peers but trails the S&P 500
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability PG stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Household & Personal Products (15 peers)Is PG cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 15 Household & Personal Products peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ PG vs. Its Closest PeersHow does PG compare to CL and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Household & Personal Products from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files PG beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | PG (this report) | CL | KVUE | KMB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $336.6B | $73.3B | $36.9B | $36.6B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +1.5% | +4.9% | +3.0% | +0.6% |
| Forward P/E | 19.5x | 22.4x | 15.5x | 14.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.13 | 1.78 | 1.56 | 2.28 |
| Operating Margin | 22.1% | 21.0% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 5.9 | 9.7 | — | 21.7 |
CL (Colgate-Palmolive Company), KVUE (Kenvue Inc.), KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could PG go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $160.57 | High Target: | $186.00 |
| Current Price: | $144.55 | Low Target: | $143.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +11.1% | Number of Analysts: | 23 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded PG recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | DOWNGRADE | Buy → Hold | Aug 07, 2026 |
| HSBC | DOWNGRADE | Buy → Hold | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | INITIATED | Market Perform | Jun 11, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on PG?
Overall Score: 1.5/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Procter & Gamble (PG) Issues 2027 Guidance, Is The Stock Expensive?
Simply Wall St. • Aug 11Procter & Gamble (PG) has just updated investors with full year 2027 guidance, new quarterly earnings expectations, and fresh details on capital retur...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/procter-ga... - Here's How Many Shares of Procter & Gamble You'd Need for $10,000 in Yearly Dividends.
Motley Fool • Aug 11Procter & Gamble has one of the longest dividend increase streaks of any American company, but it's not inexpensive to wring $10,000 in year payouts f...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/11/heres-how-many-sha...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 1)
- All It Takes Is $17,000 Invested in This High-Yield Dividend King Stock to Generate Over $500 in Yearly Dividends
Motley Fool • Aug 13Procter & Gamble isn't a flashy company, but its dividend will appeal to investors looking for a payout they can count on....
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/13/all-it-takes-is-17...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $149.35 on 2026-06-15
Confluence: 4/7 (14d before entry)
Stop Loss: $138.53
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
56%
Past Total Return
+28.3%
Max Drawdown
-14.2%
Avg Trade
+3.6%
Trades
16
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $149.35 on 2026-06-15
Confluence: 4/7 (14d before entry)
Stop Loss: $140.03
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
48%
Past Total Return
+29.4%
Max Drawdown
-11.4%
Avg Trade
+2.4%
Trades
21
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for PG stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $144.55 | Market Cap | $336.6B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 56.2% (16 trades) | Forward P/E | 19.5x |
| Past Total Return | +28.3% | Analyst Target | $160.57 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 45 / 6 | Upside to Target | +11.1% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +1.5% |
| Profit Factor | 2.12 | Institutional Own. | 72.0% |
| Position Entry | 2026-06-15 @ $149.35 | Analyst Ratings | 14 Buy / 10 Hold / 0 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | -3.2% |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the PG rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to PG based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (45) is currently in neutral range in 56% of 16 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 6 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($3.01) indicates moderate volatility (2.1% of price), suggesting potential moves of 4.2%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 56% of the time across 16 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +3.6% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 0/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why PG can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 0/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ PG — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $144.55 | Volume | 7.2M |
| Avg Volume | 8.8M | Beta | 0.38 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $145.99 | EMA 50 | $146.27 |
| EMA 200 | $147.07 | VWAP | $144.29 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 5.90 | Distance from EMA 20 | -1.0% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 44.97 | MACD | -0.63 |
| MACD Signal | -0.37 | MACD Histogram | -0.26 |
| Stochastic %K | 30.39 | Stochastic %D | 33.28 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $149.44 | Bollinger Middle | $146.27 |
| Bollinger Lower | $143.10 | Band Position | 22.8% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $3.01 | ATR as % of price | 2.1% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days) | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $336.6B | Revenue | $87.0B |
| Forward P/E | 19.5 | Revenue Growth | +1.5% |
| Trailing P/E | 21.8 | Gross Margin | 50.9% |
| Price/Sales | 3.87 | Operating Margin | 22.1% |
| Price/Book | 6.30 | Profit Margin | 18.4% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.13 | ROE | 30.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $362.1B | Free Cash Flow | $13.3B |
| EPS (Forward) | $7.40 | Dividend Yield | 3.01% |
| 52-Week Range | $137.62 - $167.25 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | $149.35 | -3.21% | $144.35 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-11 | 2023-01-30 | $127.84 | $128.68 | +0.66% | Win |
| 2023-03-24 | 2023-06-01 | $133.89 | $132.20 | -1.27% | Loss |
| 2023-07-21 | 2023-08-10 | $141.32 | $144.26 | +2.08% | Win |
| 2023-11-21 | 2023-12-08 | $139.12 | $134.97 | -2.98% | Loss |
| 2024-01-22 | 2024-02-23 | $138.36 | $150.69 | +8.91% | Win |
| 2024-04-19 | 2024-12-27 | $148.94 | $161.57 | +8.48% | Win |
| 2025-02-11 | 2025-04-09 | $162.46 | $155.64 | -4.20% | Loss |
| 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-10 | $163.92 | $157.11 | -4.15% | Loss |
| 2025-07-31 | 2025-12-10 | $146.17 | $136.78 | -6.43% | Loss |
| 2026-01-27 | 2026-02-27 | $146.14 | $164.72 | +12.71% | Win |
Summary: 16 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
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