Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs PM a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Great business, weak setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is PM a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is currently rated STRONG BUY (Signal Strength: 6/7 (last fired 2026-07-28, 17d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 26.1, Revenue Growth: +10.4%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 54). Traders should watch for a breakout above $199.78 before entering new positions.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated STRONG BUY (Signal Strength 6/7), model timing RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x ATR stop sits at $180.67, 5.1% below the current $190.39.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +10.4% YoY with a 40.0% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 20.8x.
- Wall Street: average target $203.80 (+7.0%) from 11 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $190.05 (-0.2%), nearest resistance $199.78 (+4.9%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open PM Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on PM stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does PM carry this rating?
PM carries a STRONG BUY rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 69/100) and a confirmed bullish setup is in place (Signal Strength 6/7), but trend strength is still emerging (ADX 21) and relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter. A close below $190.05 would weaken the setup; sustained strength keeps the STRONG BUY intact.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on PM?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
MAINTAIN POSITION — currently +5.4% unrealized. Manage it with the stop levels below.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$190.39
Buy Stop Loss
$180.67
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$181.88
Distance: 4%
Hybrid 1.75x
ATR 14 Day
$4.86
Volatility
ADX Strength
17.7
Weak/No Trend
Position up +5% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could PM stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for PM over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 70%)
If PM reclaims the $199.78 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $203.80. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 17%)
Failure to hold the $190.05 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $177.83 liquidity zone (-6.6% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 18 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $190.05 and $199.78 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying PM now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much PM should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs PM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Philip Morris International Inc. · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does PM's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Strong on both. PM pairs a solid business with a constructive setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving PM's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation Fwd P/E 20.8, PEG 2.4 | +8 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 21 | +8 | |
| Revenue Growth +10% YoY | +7 | |
| Profitability Margin 26%, ROE 0% | +2 | |
| Sentiment Neutral | +0 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.5% of price | -1 | |
| Relative Strength -3.0% vs benchmarks (3M) | -3 | |
| Momentum RSI 66, MACD bearish | -5 | |
| Earnings Growth -8% YoY | -9 |
Net Factor Score: +7 — Balanced / mixed. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs PM outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -3.1% | -4.0% | -12.1% |
| Consumer Defensive (XLP) | -0.0% | -2.0% | +4.8% |
PM 3-month return: +0.1% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability PM stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Defensive (14 peers)Is PM cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 14 Consumer Defensive peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ PM vs. Its Closest PeersHow does PM compare to MO and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Tobacco from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files PM beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | PM (this report) | MO | VGR | TPB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $296.7B | $109.7B | — | $1.7B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +10.4% | +1.2% | — | +22.6% |
| Forward P/E | 20.8x | 11.2x | — | 36.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.42 | 1.49 | — | 0.05 |
| Operating Margin | 40.0% | 61.5% | — | 12.8% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 17.7 | 15.0 | — | — |
MO (Altria Group, Inc.), VGR (VGR), TPB (Turning Point Brands, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could PM go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $203.80 | High Target: | $225.00 |
| Current Price: | $190.39 | Low Target: | $175.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +7.0% | Number of Analysts: | 15 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded PM recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
No recent rating changes available
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on PM?
Overall Score: 0.1/10 - Neutral
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $180.61 on 2026-05-11
Confluence: 6/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $180.67
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
44%
Past Total Return
+48.3%
Max Drawdown
-20.3%
Avg Trade
+5.2%
Trades
18
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $183.10 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
52%
Past Total Return
+67.5%
Max Drawdown
-11.1%
Avg Trade
+4.6%
Trades
25
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for PM stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $190.39 | Market Cap | $296.7B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 44.4% (18 trades) | Forward P/E | 20.8x |
| Past Total Return | +48.3% | Analyst Target | $203.80 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 54 / 18 | Upside to Target | +7.0% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | +10.4% |
| Profit Factor | 4.33 | Institutional Own. | 84.7% |
| Position Entry | 2026-05-11 @ $180.61 | Analyst Ratings | 11 Buy / 4 Hold / 0 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +5.4% |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the PM rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a STRONG BUY rating to PM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (54) is currently in neutral range in 44% of 18 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 18 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Neutral).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($4.86) indicates moderate volatility (2.6% of price), suggesting potential moves of 5.1%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 44% of the time across 18 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +5.2% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 6/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✓ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why PM can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 6/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ PM — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $190.39 | Volume | 4.6M |
| Avg Volume | 5.0M | Beta | 0.40 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $188.60 | EMA 50 | $185.15 |
| EMA 200 | $172.35 | VWAP | $189.71 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 17.72 | Distance from EMA 20 | +0.9% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 53.90 | MACD | 0.75 |
| MACD Signal | 1.42 | MACD Histogram | -0.67 |
| Stochastic %K | 18.86 | Stochastic %D | 13.15 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $198.79 | Bollinger Middle | $190.74 |
| Bollinger Lower | $182.69 | Band Position | 47.8% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $4.86 | ATR as % of price | 2.6% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 6/7 (last fired 2026-07-28, 17d ago) | Trade Signal | BUY — fired 2026-07-28 (17d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $296.7B | Revenue | $42.5B |
| Forward P/E | 20.8 | Revenue Growth | +10.4% |
| Trailing P/E | 26.1 | Gross Margin | 67.5% |
| Price/Sales | 6.97 | Operating Margin | 40.0% |
| Price/Book | -34.57 | Profit Margin | 25.6% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.42 | ROE | 0.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $341.8B | Free Cash Flow | $9.7B |
| EPS (Forward) | $9.17 | Dividend Yield | 3.11% |
| 52-Week Range | $142.11 - $207.76 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $180.61 | +5.41% | $171.27 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | 2023-05-05 | $86.33 | $82.93 | -3.94% | Loss |
| 2023-06-27 | 2023-08-18 | $84.92 | $82.98 | -2.28% | Loss |
| 2023-09-27 | 2024-01-31 | $80.55 | $82.14 | +1.98% | Win |
| 2024-02-01 | 2024-02-05 | $84.35 | $82.85 | -1.78% | Loss |
| 2024-03-13 | 2024-04-08 | $86.18 | $82.79 | -3.93% | Loss |
| 2024-04-22 | 2024-09-09 | $86.22 | $118.35 | +37.26% | Win |
| 2024-10-04 | 2024-12-26 | $111.84 | $115.56 | +3.33% | Win |
| 2025-01-28 | 2025-07-28 | $122.44 | $152.26 | +24.35% | Win |
| 2025-10-21 | 2026-02-25 | $148.07 | $186.57 | +26.01% | Win |
| 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-23 | $164.00 | $161.90 | -1.28% | Loss |
Summary: 18 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
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