UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs UNH a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Weak on business and setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is UNH a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is currently rated WAIT FOR SIGNAL (Signal Strength: 3/7). The long-term fundamentals are stable (P/E: 25.8, Revenue Growth: +0.4%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 43). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $412.86 before adding exposure.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated WAIT FOR SIGNAL (Signal Strength 3/7), model timing RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $10.67 below entry ($21.33–$32.00).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +0.4% YoY with a 7.1% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 17.9x.
- Wall Street: average target $475.23 (+18.3%) from 22 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $398.80 (-0.7%), nearest resistance $412.86 (+2.8%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open UNH Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on UNH stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does UNH carry this rating?
UNH carries a WAIT rating because the trend is strong (ADX 25), but fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 47/100), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 3/7). A breakout above $412.86 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $398.80 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on UNH?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
WAIT FOR ENTRY — monitor for a Signal Strength of 5+, then size the position against a stop set 2-3x the 14-day ATR below entry.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$401.73
Buy Stop Loss
$380.40
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$380.40
Distance: 5%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$10.67
Volatility
ADX Strength
25.0
Strong trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could UNH stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for UNH over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 47%)
If UNH reclaims the $412.86 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $475.23. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Healthcare.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 36%)
Failure to hold the $398.80 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $383.28 liquidity zone (-4.6% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 25 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $398.80 and $412.86 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying UNH now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much UNH should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs UNH stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated · Healthcare · Healthcare Plans. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does UNH's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
UNH: Investment Quality 47/100 vs. Entry Quality 75/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving UNH's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +62% YoY | +18 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 25 | +12 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 17.9, PEG 1.2 | +8 | |
| Revenue Growth +0% YoY | +0 | |
| Sentiment Neutral | +0 | |
| Profitability Margin 3%, ROE 14% | -1 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.7% of price | -1 | |
| Momentum RSI 43, MACD bearish | -5 | |
| Relative Strength -8.1% vs benchmarks (3M) | -8 |
Net Factor Score: +23 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs UNH outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -8.5% | -2.8% | +28.6% |
| Healthcare (XLV) | -8.6% | -13.4% | +35.0% |
UNH 3-month return: +1.2% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability UNH stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Healthcare (15 peers)Is UNH cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 15 Healthcare peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ UNH vs. Its Closest PeersHow does UNH compare to CVS and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Healthcare Plans from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files UNH beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | UNH (this report) | CVS | MRK | ABBV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $360.6B | $124.3B | $335.1B | $440.8B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +0.4% | +7.1% | +5.1% | +10.2% |
| Forward P/E | 17.9x | 11.4x | 14.2x | 15.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.25 | 0.25 | 2.79 | 0.41 |
| Operating Margin | 7.1% | 3.9% | -0.2% | 40.0% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 25.0 | 29.6 | 17.7 | 21.6 |
CVS (CVS Health Corporation — closest business match), MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.), ABBV (AbbVie Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could UNH go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $475.23 | High Target: | $529.00 |
| Current Price: | $401.73 | Low Target: | $313.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +18.3% | Number of Analysts: | 26 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded UNH recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | UPGRADE | Underperform → Neutral | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | UPGRADE | Neutral → Buy | Jun 04, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on UNH?
Overall Score: -0.4/10 - Neutral
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 1)
- Is Dividend Hike And Medicare Exit Strategy Altering The Investment Case For UnitedHealth Group (UNH)?
Simply Wall St. • Aug 14In August 2026, UnitedHealth Group’s board authorized a cash dividend of US$2.32 per share, paid on September 22, 2026, to shareholders of record as o...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/dividend-hike-...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 1)
- Luigi Mangione Pleads Guilty in US Case Over CEO Killing
Bloomberg • Aug 14Luigi Mangione pleaded guilty in a federal case over the fatal shooting of UnitedHealth Group executive Brian Thompson in December 2024....
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/luigi-mangione-pleads-guilty...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $380.40 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
67%
Past Total Return
+57.9%
Max Drawdown
-9.9%
Avg Trade
+11.5%
Trades
15
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $385.73 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
67%
Past Total Return
+73.5%
Max Drawdown
-8.7%
Avg Trade
+10.1%
Trades
18
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for UNH stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $401.73 | Market Cap | $360.6B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 66.7% (15 trades) | Forward P/E | 17.9x |
| Past Total Return | +57.9% | Analyst Target | $475.23 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 43 / 25 | Upside to Target | +18.3% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +0.4% |
| Profit Factor | 2.90 | Institutional Own. | 90.8% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 22 Buy / 5 Hold / 1 Sell |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the UNH rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to UNH based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (43) is currently in neutral range in 67% of 15 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 25 indicates a strong trend (25-50) supporting directional moves. News sentiment is neutral (Neutral).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($10.67) indicates moderate volatility (2.7% of price), suggesting potential moves of 5.3%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 67% of the time across 15 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +11.5% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 3/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✓ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
Points met on the latest bar: 3 → registered Signal Strength 3/7. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal (5+ for a strong BUY); below that it reads 0.
This is why UNH can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 3/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ UNH — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $401.73 | Volume | 3.5M |
| Avg Volume | 6.0M | Beta | 0.63 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $411.18 | EMA 50 | $406.31 |
| EMA 200 | $367.12 | VWAP | $400.49 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 25.04 | Distance from EMA 20 | -2.3% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 42.51 | MACD | -3.98 |
| MACD Signal | -1.68 | MACD Histogram | -2.30 |
| Stochastic %K | 13.81 | Stochastic %D | 16.16 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $436.09 | Bollinger Middle | $415.02 |
| Bollinger Lower | $393.95 | Band Position | 18.5% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $10.67 | ATR as % of price | 2.7% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 3/7 | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $360.6B | Revenue | $450.5B |
| Forward P/E | 17.9 | Revenue Growth | +0.4% |
| Trailing P/E | 25.8 | Gross Margin | 19.7% |
| Price/Sales | 0.80 | Operating Margin | 7.1% |
| Price/Book | 3.48 | Profit Margin | 3.1% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.25 | ROE | 14.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $410.0B | Free Cash Flow | $24.3B |
| EPS (Forward) | $22.44 | Dividend Yield | 2.33% |
| 52-Week Range | $255.97 - $461.62 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-10 | 2023-09-05 | $431.49 | $452.54 | +4.88% | Win |
| 2023-09-22 | 2024-01-18 | $478.20 | $489.54 | +2.37% | Win |
| 2024-04-02 | 2024-06-20 | $436.07 | $463.14 | +6.21% | Win |
| 2024-06-28 | 2024-09-04 | $486.79 | $577.52 | +18.64% | Win |
| 2024-10-15 | 2024-10-29 | $533.63 | $539.23 | +1.05% | Win |
| 2024-11-07 | 2024-12-11 | $580.78 | $513.76 | -11.54% | Loss |
| 2025-02-21 | 2025-04-23 | $449.13 | $413.86 | -7.85% | Loss |
| 2025-08-15 | 2025-09-12 | $296.08 | $343.32 | +15.95% | Win |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-06-15 | $257.55 | $411.04 | +59.60% | Win |
| 2026-06-26 | 2026-08-07 | $427.89 | $407.08 | -4.86% | Loss |
Summary: 15 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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